The geopolitical trap of a secret war treaty....

One of the most important topics that has attracted intense attention in the field of international politics and war recently is the United Kingdom's (Britain) permission to allow the United States of America to use its military bases for military operations against Iran. 

This is not just a simple military agreement, but a complex combination of a global power struggle, a huge economic risk and a cunning geopolitical strategy. If we analyze the overall picture created by this situation in detail, it is as follows. 

Britain's policy shift and the true nature of the agreement...

After the 2003 Iraq war, the British public and political establishment were very reluctant to join directly in American-led foreign wars. That is why successive prime ministers after Tony Blair limited the use of their bases to the United States. 

 However, in the current situation, Britain has relaxed its decision to some extent with the following conditions.

The US can only use major bases such as Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford for security operations to prevent Iranian missile attacks and protect international shipping lanes.

According to the Murphy-Truman Agreement of 1951, any action from British bases requires the prior approval of the British Prime Minister.

Britain has not yet given full permission for direct offensive strikes into Iran.

Donald Trump's "cunning strategy"...

US President Donald Trump's foreign policy has always been based on the terms Maximum Pressure and Deal-making.  In this context, the acquisition of British bases is a clever strategic move.

US President Donald Trump, relying on NATO allies, is trying to shift the blame and global political pressure on Britain and other Western countries. 

The distinction between “defensive” and “pre-emptive strikes” on the battlefield can be very subtle. The US is allowed to launch pre-emptive strikes on Iranian missile sites under the pretext of defense. 

Without actually going to a major war, Trump is trying to intimidate Iran by taking over British strategic bases and coaxing Iran into new agreements that are favorable to America. 

Comparison of military strengths..

The military strengths of the two sides in this crisis are two completely different models.  In terms of military strength, the UK has a highly trained force of 150,000. Iran has 600,000 troops.

In terms of air power, Britain has the latest F-35 Stealth and Eurofighter Typhoon. Iran has older jets, but they have a huge drone fleet.

In terms of naval power, Britain has two aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines. Iran has small but capable attack vessels that can control the Strait of Hormuz.

When it comes to missiles and nuclear power, Britain has the Trident nuclear submarine system. Iran has the largest ballistic missile arsenal in the Middle East.

If Iran attacks...

The situation would be very dangerous if Iran attacked British soil or military bases.

 If that happens, NATO Article 5 will be activated. That is, an attack on one NATO member country is considered an attack on all members (30+ countries including the US, France, Germany). This will lead to all Western powers entering a direct war with Iran. 

If Russia and China, who are behind Iran, intervene in this conflict directly or indirectly, there is a risk of this becoming a third world war of the great powers. 

A fatal blow to the British economy...

Britain does not have the economic strength to maintain such a long-term war on its own. 

If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil transport passes, the price of oil and gas on the world market will skyrocket. The cost of living in Britain, which is dependent on imported fuel, will become increasingly difficult. 

 Modern wars cost hundreds of millions of dollars a day, and Britain, already suffering from high public debt, is bound to have to cut health and public services, creating internal political instability. 

Accordingly, the agreement between England and America on the use of these bases is not just a regional security measure. It will be a trap in Donald Trump’s aggressive diplomatic game, and this step taken by Britain for its own security could be the beginning of a major war that would endanger the entire world economy and international internal stability. 

Jayalathge Sunil Gamini ✍️